Israel’s divided government collapsed last year on December 23, thus triggering a need for the country’s fourth election in under two years. The next election will be held on March 23 and brings an unprecedented threat to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s lengthy stay as prime minister.
Netanyahu finds himself confronted by a trio of disgruntled former aides who share his hard-line ideology, led by a popular lawmaker who recently broke away from the prime minister’s Likud party. Whether Netanyahu can fend off these challengers or not, the country is almost certain to be led by a right-wing politician opposed to concessions to the Palestinians, complicating hopes of the Biden administration to restart peace talks.
The prospects of Israel’s center-left bloc appear worse than in previous contests because its leader, Defense Minister Benny Gantz, entered the ill-fated alliance with Netanyahu. Gantz has lost the support of much of his disappointed base and the bloc has been left leaderless.
Netanyahu and Gantz formed their coalition last May after battling to a stalemate in three consecutive elections. They said they were putting aside their personal rivalry to form an “emergency” government focused on guiding the country through the health and economic crises caused by the pandemic. Under the deal, Gantz assumed the new role of “alternate prime minister” and was assured he would trade places with Netanyahu next November in a rotation agreement halfway through their term.
The immediate cause of the collapse was their failure to pass a budget. That caused the parliament to automatically dissolve and set new elections for late March. In the previous three elections, Netanyahu was unable to put together a majority coalition with his traditional religious and nationalist allies. Yet he controlled enough seats to prevent his opponents from cobbling together an alternate coalition.
According to recent opinion polls, that equation may be changing, with several rivals poised to control a parliamentary majority without him. Those rivals are led by Gideon Saar, a stalwart in Netanyahu’s Likud party who announced this month that he was breaking away and forming a new party. Saar, who once served as Netanyahu’s Cabinet secretary, has accused the prime minister of turning the Likud into a “personality cult” focused on ensuring its leader’s political survival.
If elections were held today, Saar’s party would finish second behind the Likud, appearing to give him a veto over a Netanyahu-led government, according to polls. Saar has vowed he will not serve under Netanyahu.
Naftali Bennett, another former aide who had a falling out with Netanyahu, leads a religious right-wing party that also has surged in the polls. And Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu’s former chief of staff and a longtime Cabinet minister who now leads his own party, also says the prime minister is unfit to lead.
These rivalries are more personal than ideological, meaning Israel’s next government — led by Netanyahu or not — almost certainly will have a right-wing ideology that opposes Palestinian independence and supports continued Israeli settlement construction in the occupied West Bank. The recent polls indicate that Gantz, who appealed to left-wing voters in previous elections, may not receive enough votes to even enter the next Knesset.
Yair Lapid, leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, appears to be gaining some of those voters, but not enough to lead the next government, according to the polls. The left-wing Labor Party -- which established Israel and led the country for its first 30 years -- is not expected to cross the threshold of votes needed. The far-left Meretz party is expected to barely cross the threshold.
PRAY: Pray this election will not lead to greater instability in the region and for ultimately God’s will to be accomplished through the election.