While many in the West thought that sanctions against Russian goods, including oil, would bring Russia to the negotiating table with Ukraine, Russia has been able to remain afloat financially because of their relationships with less than desirable nations, first Iran and now Afghanistan. Taliban officials and Moscow are finalizing a deal that would allow the isolated rulers of Afghanistan to purchase much-needed fuel while helping prop up Russia's heavily sanctioned economy. A delegation of Taliban officials met in Moscow to negotiate a deal with their Russian counterparts to secure imports of wheat, gas and oil. The negotiations come as the Taliban seek to thaw the diplomatic freeze that followed their armed takeover of Afghanistan last year and as Russia sidesteps Western sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine. An unnamed source in Afghanistan's office of the Minister of Commerce and Industry told Reuters that the contracts are expected to be finalized soon.
No government has formally recognized the Taliban's government after the hardline Islamist group seized power after the U.S. withdrew its presence last year. But Russia, China and other countries antagonistic toward the U.S. have kept their embassies open in Afghanistan's capital city of Kabul. Saddled with severe economic sanctions since the war began in February, Russia has also hosted talks with Taliban trade officials. Afghanistan already gets the majority of its food and oil from Russia and trade between the two amounts to $200 million annually, according to Afghanistan's TOLOnews. Russia already offers less expensive wheat and oil, the news outlet reported, citing the country's Chamber of Commerce and Investment.
Oil exports have been a key economic lifeline for Russia. Despite the sanctions, Russia saw roughly $93 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports during the first 100 days of its invasion of Ukraine. Demand for Russian energy was driven primarily by China and India. Additionally, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, France and Poland also helped keep demand for Russian energy high despite the sanctions.
While Russia has not sold as much oil as previous years, because of the rising cost of oil globally over the summer, they have actually made greater revenue. "Import volumes fell modestly in May, around 15% compared with the time before the invasion, as many countries and firms shunned Russian supplies.” However, reduced demand and lower price for Russian oil cost the country about $200 million a day in May but rising demand globally for fossil fuels has meant Russia's average export prices remained 60 percent higher than last year. Thus, any thought that a lack of oil sales would force Putin to negotiate will definitely not come to pass, especially with the winter months coming to Western Europe and a greater need to oil to possible break oil sanctions.
While trade deals between Russia and the Taliban may be near, other barriers may prevent the two from exchanging goods. Nooruddin Azizi, the Taliban's acting minister of Commerce and Industry, told TOLOnews that most of the Afghan and Russian banks remain under sanctions, meaning a third country will facilitate the exchange of money. "Some of our technical teams are still in Russia and they want to work on the details, such as what kind of money transfers we may have," said Azizi. Even still, nothing good can come from Russia making deals with the Taliban.
Biblical Connection: Russia getting more and more involved with the Middle East instead of the West makes complete sense from a biblical perspective. One day in the future, Russia will make an alliance with several Middle Eastern nations in an attempt to destroy Israel (Ezekiel 38-39). We can only expect Russia to continue to push towards the Middle East in the future.
PRAY: Pray that God’s will, even in areas that we sometimes do not understand, will continue to be accomplished and His plans will push forward.