Since 2019, the Syrian situation has been largely at a stalemate, with authority divided among three de facto enclaves, each dependent on the sponsorship of outside powers. The Assad regime, guaranteed by Russia and Iran, controls around 60-65% of Syria’s territory, including the coastline and the main cities. The US-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces hold most of the area east of the Euphrates, comprising roughly 30% of Syria’s area. Turkey, in partnership with the self-styled “Syrian National Army”, the remnants of the Sunni Islamist rebellion, remustered under Turkish auspices and with the jihadi Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, controls an area in the northwest, comprising around 10% of Syrian territory.
This de facto partition has mostly held since early 2018. Turkey shifted the balance somewhat in October-November 2019, with a ground incursion east of the Euphrates. This resulted in the establishment of an enclave of Turkish-controlled territory biting into the Kurdish-controlled area, and in the deployment of regime and Russian forces east of the Euphrates in order to deter further Turkish advances. Since then, the military situation on the ground has been static, the broader question of Syria’s future unresolved.
There are indications of renewed movement. Specifically, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been carrying out an air campaign against targets in the Kurdish/US area since November 20th of last year. Erdogan has already threatened a ground incursion, with the intention of pushing the Kurdish forces back 30 kilometers from the border and conquering three towns – Tal Rifaat, Manbij and Kobani. Turkey is now also moving toward more diplomatic ties to both Russia and Syria. “We want to take a tripartite step as Syria-Turkey-Russia,” Erdogan told reporters on his way back from Turkmenistan, as reported on the Al-Monitor news website. The statements followed talks in Istanbul between the Turkish and Russian deputy foreign ministers, and a phone conversation between Putin and Erdogan.
This is a far cry from the Erdogan of a decade ago. Turkey emerged as the first and most determined supporter of the Islamist insurgents who sought to destroy the Assad regime. In 2012, in the early days of the insurgency, Erdogan effectively opened the border to the rebels, allowing them to ferry weaponry and supplies into Syria. Now, as the last protector of what is left of the revolt, the Turkish leader appears to be pursuing a very different goal – namely, rapprochement with the Assad regime, under Russian auspices.
The Turkish leader’s stance indicates that while he may have for the moment abandoned his ambition to stand at the head of a group of Sunni Islamist regional states, this is not leading him to return to a pro-US regional policy. Rather, he appears to be seeking to draw closer to Russia in order to further weaken and eventually nullify the Kurdish-led entity in eastern Syria. Erdogan considers that this body, aligned with the US in its fight against ISIS, is a front for the PKK (Kurdish Workers Party), with which Turkey has been at war since 1984. His efforts since 2015, when it became clear that the rebellion was not going to defeat Assad, have been mainly directed toward seeking the destruction of the Kurdish-led area. In this regard, Turkey finds natural partners in Russia and Assad. Assad wants to reassert his nominal control over the entirety of Russian sovereignty. Russia supports this goal too, as does its ally Iran, and both would like to see the departure of the US troops currently guaranteeing the continued existence of the Kurdish-led enclave. As Turkey moves away from NATO and toward Russia and Iran, could this be setting the stage for Gog and Magog?
Biblical Connections: Ezekiel 38-39 talks about the battle of Gog and Magog in which Turkey, Iran and Russia will align with other nations to invade Israel in the future.
PRAY: Pray for God’s will to be accomplished throughout these events in the Middle East.